Inside / outside day follow-through — after an inside day
All matching sessions
Next RTH closed above its open on
53.2%of 434 matching days · 95% CI 48.5%–57.9%
Base rate
54.2%
n 4,013
Lift
−1.0 pp
vs base rate
Matching days
434
sample size
Every outcome of this report
By weekday
Select a weekday to condition the whole report on it; select it again to clear.
Evidence
Sample split
In sample 2010–202252.8% n 335
Out of sample 2023–present54.5% n 99
By regime
Regime era · Pre-202053.2% n 265
Regime era · Covid 2020n 28
Regime era · Post-202053.2% n 141
Trend / chop · Trend63.4% n 145
Trend / chop · Chop48.1% n 289
Rolling 12-month rate
Rolling 12-month values
| Month | Rate | Days |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-07 | — | 1 |
| 2010-08 | — | 4 |
| 2010-09 | — | 5 |
| 2010-10 | — | 8 |
| 2010-11 | — | 12 |
| 2010-12 | — | 14 |
| 2011-01 | — | 15 |
| 2011-02 | — | 17 |
| 2011-03 | — | 21 |
| 2011-04 | — | 22 |
| 2011-05 | — | 25 |
| 2011-06 | — | 27 |
| 2011-07 | — | 27 |
| 2011-08 | — | 26 |
| 2011-09 | — | 26 |
| 2011-10 | — | 25 |
| 2011-11 | — | 24 |
| 2011-12 | — | 25 |
| 2012-01 | — | 25 |
| 2012-02 | — | 24 |
| 2012-03 | — | 21 |
| 2012-04 | — | 22 |
| 2012-05 | — | 22 |
| 2012-06 | — | 22 |
| 2012-07 | — | 25 |
| 2012-08 | — | 27 |
| 2012-09 | — | 29 |
| 2012-10 | — | 28 |
| 2012-11 | — | 27 |
| 2012-12 | — | 29 |
| 2013-01 | — | 29 |
| 2013-02 | 50.0% | 30 |
| 2013-03 | 48.4% | 31 |
| 2013-04 | 50.0% | 32 |
| 2013-05 | 51.6% | 31 |
| 2013-06 | 53.3% | 30 |
| 2013-07 | — | 26 |
| 2013-08 | — | 26 |
| 2013-09 | — | 25 |
| 2013-10 | — | 27 |
| 2013-11 | — | 27 |
| 2013-12 | — | 24 |
| 2014-01 | — | 25 |
| 2014-02 | — | 24 |
| 2014-03 | — | 24 |
| 2014-04 | — | 23 |
| 2014-05 | — | 23 |
| 2014-06 | — | 27 |
| 2014-07 | 50.0% | 30 |
| 2014-08 | — | 28 |
| 2014-09 | — | 28 |
| 2014-10 | — | 28 |
| 2014-11 | — | 27 |
| 2014-12 | 50.0% | 32 |
| 2015-01 | 54.8% | 31 |
| 2015-02 | 54.8% | 31 |
| 2015-03 | 56.3% | 32 |
| 2015-04 | 56.3% | 32 |
| 2015-05 | 52.9% | 34 |
| 2015-06 | 46.7% | 30 |
| 2015-07 | 45.2% | 31 |
| 2015-08 | 45.2% | 31 |
| 2015-09 | 45.2% | 31 |
| 2015-10 | 43.3% | 30 |
| 2015-11 | — | 29 |
| 2015-12 | — | 26 |
| 2016-01 | — | 27 |
| 2016-02 | — | 27 |
| 2016-03 | — | 26 |
| 2016-04 | — | 27 |
| 2016-05 | — | 24 |
| 2016-06 | — | 25 |
| 2016-07 | — | 25 |
| 2016-08 | — | 27 |
| 2016-09 | — | 29 |
| 2016-10 | 46.7% | 30 |
| 2016-11 | 43.8% | 32 |
| 2016-12 | 45.2% | 31 |
| 2017-01 | 46.7% | 30 |
| 2017-02 | 50.0% | 30 |
| 2017-03 | 54.8% | 31 |
| 2017-04 | 56.3% | 32 |
| 2017-05 | 54.8% | 31 |
| 2017-06 | 63.3% | 30 |
| 2017-07 | — | 29 |
| 2017-08 | 54.8% | 31 |
| 2017-09 | 51.5% | 33 |
| 2017-10 | 54.5% | 33 |
| 2017-11 | 56.3% | 32 |
| 2017-12 | 56.3% | 32 |
| 2018-01 | 58.8% | 34 |
| 2018-02 | 57.6% | 33 |
| 2018-03 | 53.1% | 32 |
| 2018-04 | 56.7% | 30 |
| 2018-05 | 58.1% | 31 |
| 2018-06 | 53.3% | 30 |
| 2018-07 | 53.3% | 30 |
| 2018-08 | — | 25 |
| 2018-09 | — | 23 |
| 2018-10 | — | 26 |
| 2018-11 | — | 27 |
| 2018-12 | — | 25 |
| 2019-01 | — | 26 |
| 2019-02 | — | 28 |
| 2019-03 | 66.7% | 30 |
| 2019-04 | — | 29 |
| 2019-05 | 63.3% | 30 |
| 2019-06 | 62.5% | 32 |
| 2019-07 | 64.5% | 31 |
| 2019-08 | 59.4% | 32 |
| 2019-09 | 54.8% | 31 |
| 2019-10 | — | 28 |
| 2019-11 | — | 28 |
| 2019-12 | — | 27 |
| 2020-01 | — | 25 |
| 2020-02 | — | 25 |
| 2020-03 | — | 25 |
| 2020-04 | — | 28 |
| 2020-05 | — | 26 |
| 2020-06 | — | 23 |
| 2020-07 | — | 24 |
| 2020-08 | — | 24 |
| 2020-09 | — | 21 |
| 2020-10 | — | 25 |
| 2020-11 | — | 24 |
| 2020-12 | — | 28 |
| 2021-01 | 50.0% | 30 |
| 2021-02 | — | 28 |
| 2021-03 | — | 26 |
| 2021-04 | — | 23 |
| 2021-05 | — | 27 |
| 2021-06 | 58.1% | 31 |
| 2021-07 | 58.1% | 31 |
| 2021-08 | 53.3% | 30 |
| 2021-09 | 57.6% | 33 |
| 2021-10 | — | 27 |
| 2021-11 | — | 28 |
| 2021-12 | — | 24 |
| 2022-01 | — | 21 |
| 2022-02 | — | 21 |
| 2022-03 | — | 21 |
| 2022-04 | — | 21 |
| 2022-05 | — | 19 |
| 2022-06 | — | 16 |
| 2022-07 | — | 15 |
| 2022-08 | — | 15 |
| 2022-09 | — | 15 |
| 2022-10 | — | 17 |
| 2022-11 | — | 16 |
| 2022-12 | — | 18 |
| 2023-01 | — | 20 |
| 2023-02 | — | 21 |
| 2023-03 | — | 21 |
| 2023-04 | — | 25 |
| 2023-05 | — | 24 |
| 2023-06 | — | 27 |
| 2023-07 | — | 28 |
| 2023-08 | — | 28 |
| 2023-09 | — | 25 |
| 2023-10 | — | 27 |
| 2023-11 | — | 28 |
| 2023-12 | — | 28 |
| 2024-01 | — | 27 |
| 2024-02 | — | 29 |
| 2024-03 | — | 29 |
| 2024-04 | — | 28 |
| 2024-05 | — | 29 |
| 2024-06 | — | 27 |
| 2024-07 | — | 28 |
| 2024-08 | — | 29 |
| 2024-09 | — | 29 |
| 2024-10 | 51.6% | 31 |
| 2024-11 | 48.5% | 33 |
| 2024-12 | 50.0% | 34 |
| 2025-01 | 48.5% | 33 |
| 2025-02 | 53.3% | 30 |
| 2025-03 | 53.3% | 30 |
| 2025-04 | 56.7% | 30 |
| 2025-05 | 59.4% | 32 |
| 2025-06 | 56.3% | 32 |
| 2025-07 | 61.3% | 31 |
| 2025-08 | 64.5% | 31 |
| 2025-09 | 65.6% | 32 |
| 2025-10 | 61.3% | 31 |
| 2025-11 | — | 29 |
| 2025-12 | — | 28 |
| 2026-01 | — | 28 |
| 2026-02 | — | 29 |
| 2026-03 | — | 28 |
| 2026-04 | — | 25 |
| 2026-05 | — | 21 |
| 2026-06 | — | 22 |
filters applied 1 · p 0.699 · adjusted p 0.897
The 53% rate on 434 matching days was not distinguishable from the 54% base rate after adjustment (adjusted p = 0.90 across 2 filter combinations).