Opening range breakout

How often the RTH session broke and held beyond the opening range, for 5/15/30-minute ranges, on days matching the selected filters.

Opening range breakout — 15 min

Weekday: Monday

Noise

RTH stayed inside the opening range on

0.0%of 756 matching days · 95% CI 0.0%–0.5%

Base rate

0.1%

n 4,013

Lift

−0.1 pp

vs base rate

Matching days

756

sample size

Every outcome of this report

RTH broke above the opening-range high79.8% n 756RTH broke below the opening-range low69.2% n 756RTH broke both sides of the opening range48.9% n 756RTH stayed inside the opening range0.0% n 756RTH closed outside the opening range74.7% n 756

By weekday

Monday0.0% n 756Tuesday0.1% n 828Wednesday0.0% n 824Thursday0.1% n 810Friday0.1% n 795

Select a weekday to condition the whole report on it; select it again to clear.

Evidence

Sample split

In sample 2010–20220.0% n 590
Out of sample 2023–present0.0% n 166

By regime

Regime era · Pre-20200.0% n 450
Regime era · Covid 20200.0% n 48
Regime era · Post-20200.0% n 258
Trend / chop · Trend0.0% n 260
Trend / chop · Chop0.0% n 492

Rolling 12-month rate

Rolling 12-month values
MonthRateDays
2010-06—4
2010-07—7
2010-08—12
2010-09—15
2010-10—19
2010-11—24
2010-12—28
2011-010.0%32
2011-020.0%35
2011-030.0%39
2011-040.0%43
2011-050.0%47
2011-060.0%47
2011-070.0%47
2011-080.0%47
2011-090.0%47
2011-100.0%48
2011-110.0%47
2011-120.0%46
2012-010.0%45
2012-020.0%45
2012-030.0%45
2012-040.0%46
2012-050.0%45
2012-060.0%45
2012-070.0%46
2012-080.0%46
2012-090.0%46
2012-100.0%45
2012-110.0%45
2012-120.0%46
2013-010.0%46
2013-020.0%46
2013-030.0%46
2013-040.0%46
2013-050.0%46
2013-060.0%46
2013-070.0%46
2013-080.0%46
2013-090.0%47
2013-100.0%47
2013-110.0%47
2013-120.0%48
2014-010.0%48
2014-020.0%48
2014-030.0%49
2014-040.0%48
2014-050.0%48
2014-060.0%49
2014-070.0%48
2014-080.0%48
2014-090.0%48
2014-100.0%48
2014-110.0%48
2014-120.0%48
2015-010.0%48
2015-020.0%48
2015-030.0%48
2015-040.0%48
2015-050.0%48
2015-060.0%48
2015-070.0%48
2015-080.0%49
2015-090.0%48
2015-100.0%48
2015-110.0%49
2015-120.0%48
2016-010.0%48
2016-020.0%49
2016-030.0%48
2016-040.0%48
2016-050.0%48
2016-060.0%48
2016-070.0%47
2016-080.0%47
2016-090.0%47
2016-100.0%48
2016-110.0%47
2016-120.0%46
2017-010.0%45
2017-020.0%45
2017-030.0%45
2017-040.0%45
2017-050.0%45
2017-060.0%45
2017-070.0%46
2017-080.0%45
2017-090.0%45
2017-100.0%45
2017-110.0%45
2017-120.0%45
2018-010.0%45
2018-020.0%45
2018-030.0%45
2018-040.0%46
2018-050.0%45
2018-060.0%45
2018-070.0%46
2018-080.0%46
2018-090.0%46
2018-100.0%46
2018-110.0%46
2018-120.0%47
2019-010.0%47
2019-020.0%47
2019-030.0%47
2019-040.0%47
2019-050.0%47
2019-060.0%47
2019-070.0%47
2019-080.0%47
2019-090.0%48
2019-100.0%47
2019-110.0%47
2019-120.0%48
2020-010.0%48
2020-020.0%48
2020-030.0%48
2020-040.0%48
2020-050.0%48
2020-060.0%48
2020-070.0%48
2020-080.0%49
2020-090.0%48
2020-100.0%48
2020-110.0%49
2020-120.0%48
2021-010.0%48
2021-020.0%48
2021-030.0%48
2021-040.0%48
2021-050.0%49
2021-060.0%48
2021-070.0%47
2021-080.0%47
2021-090.0%47
2021-100.0%47
2021-110.0%47
2021-120.0%47
2022-010.0%48
2022-020.0%48
2022-030.0%47
2022-040.0%47
2022-050.0%47
2022-060.0%46
2022-070.0%46
2022-080.0%46
2022-090.0%46
2022-100.0%47
2022-110.0%46
2022-120.0%45
2023-010.0%44
2023-020.0%44
2023-030.0%44
2023-040.0%44
2023-050.0%44
2023-060.0%44
2023-070.0%45
2023-080.0%44
2023-090.0%44
2023-100.0%44
2023-110.0%44
2023-120.0%44
2024-010.0%44
2024-020.0%44
2024-030.0%44
2024-040.0%44
2024-050.0%44
2024-060.0%45
2024-070.0%46
2024-080.0%46
2024-090.0%47
2024-100.0%46
2024-110.0%46
2024-120.0%48
2025-010.0%48
2025-020.0%48
2025-030.0%49
2025-040.0%48
2025-050.0%48
2025-060.0%49
2025-070.0%48
2025-080.0%48
2025-090.0%48
2025-100.0%48
2025-110.0%48
2025-120.0%48
2026-010.0%48
2026-020.0%48
2026-030.0%48
2026-040.0%48
2026-050.0%48
2026-060.0%48

filters applied 1 · p 0.452 · adjusted p 0.675

The 0% rate on 756 matching days was not distinguishable from the 0% base rate after adjustment (adjusted p = 0.67 across 5 filter combinations).

Full sessions 2010–present · ETL v1.2.0 · rates under 30 matching days are withheld