Opening range breakout — 15 min
All matching sessions
RTH closed outside the opening range on
77.5%of 4,013 matching days · 95% CI 76.2%–78.8%
Base rate
77.5%
n 4,013
Lift
+0.0 pp
vs base rate
Matching days
4,013
sample size
Every outcome of this report
By weekday
Select a weekday to condition the whole report on it; select it again to clear.
Evidence
Sample split
In sample 2010–202277.2% n 3,132
Out of sample 2023–present78.7% n 881
By regime
Regime era · Pre-202075.3% n 2,382
Regime era · Covid 202083.5% n 249
Regime era · Post-202080.4% n 1,382
Trend / chop · Trend76.2% n 1,397
Trend / chop · Chop78.3% n 2,596
Rolling 12-month rate
Rolling 12-month values
| Month | Rate | Days |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-06 | — | 18 |
| 2010-07 | 79.5% | 39 |
| 2010-08 | 82.0% | 61 |
| 2010-09 | 79.3% | 82 |
| 2010-10 | 77.7% | 103 |
| 2010-11 | 76.4% | 123 |
| 2010-12 | 73.8% | 145 |
| 2011-01 | 74.5% | 165 |
| 2011-02 | 75.5% | 184 |
| 2011-03 | 74.9% | 207 |
| 2011-04 | 74.9% | 227 |
| 2011-05 | 76.2% | 248 |
| 2011-06 | 77.8% | 252 |
| 2011-07 | 78.1% | 251 |
| 2011-08 | 78.6% | 252 |
| 2011-09 | 80.2% | 252 |
| 2011-10 | 82.1% | 252 |
| 2011-11 | 82.5% | 252 |
| 2011-12 | 84.9% | 251 |
| 2012-01 | 85.3% | 251 |
| 2012-02 | 84.5% | 251 |
| 2012-03 | 84.0% | 250 |
| 2012-04 | 85.3% | 251 |
| 2012-05 | 83.3% | 251 |
| 2012-06 | 82.0% | 250 |
| 2012-07 | 80.8% | 250 |
| 2012-08 | 78.8% | 250 |
| 2012-09 | 77.1% | 249 |
| 2012-10 | 75.8% | 248 |
| 2012-11 | 75.4% | 248 |
| 2012-12 | 74.9% | 247 |
| 2013-01 | 72.5% | 247 |
| 2013-02 | 72.9% | 247 |
| 2013-03 | 73.9% | 245 |
| 2013-04 | 72.5% | 247 |
| 2013-05 | 73.3% | 247 |
| 2013-06 | 72.8% | 246 |
| 2013-07 | 72.5% | 247 |
| 2013-08 | 72.4% | 246 |
| 2013-09 | 72.5% | 247 |
| 2013-10 | 72.7% | 249 |
| 2013-11 | 73.8% | 248 |
| 2013-12 | 72.3% | 249 |
| 2014-01 | 73.1% | 249 |
| 2014-02 | 73.9% | 249 |
| 2014-03 | 74.4% | 250 |
| 2014-04 | 74.3% | 249 |
| 2014-05 | 74.6% | 248 |
| 2014-06 | 73.3% | 247 |
| 2014-07 | 74.5% | 247 |
| 2014-08 | 76.0% | 246 |
| 2014-09 | 76.6% | 244 |
| 2014-10 | 77.0% | 244 |
| 2014-11 | 75.3% | 243 |
| 2014-12 | 76.5% | 243 |
| 2015-01 | 78.1% | 242 |
| 2015-02 | 78.1% | 242 |
| 2015-03 | 77.4% | 243 |
| 2015-04 | 78.2% | 243 |
| 2015-05 | 77.3% | 242 |
| 2015-06 | 78.0% | 245 |
| 2015-07 | 77.6% | 246 |
| 2015-08 | 76.0% | 246 |
| 2015-09 | 76.3% | 249 |
| 2015-10 | 76.6% | 248 |
| 2015-11 | 77.5% | 249 |
| 2015-12 | 79.2% | 250 |
| 2016-01 | 78.7% | 249 |
| 2016-02 | 78.8% | 250 |
| 2016-03 | 77.5% | 249 |
| 2016-04 | 76.3% | 249 |
| 2016-05 | 78.4% | 250 |
| 2016-06 | 79.2% | 250 |
| 2016-07 | 77.5% | 249 |
| 2016-08 | 77.2% | 250 |
| 2016-09 | 76.8% | 250 |
| 2016-10 | 74.0% | 250 |
| 2016-11 | 74.0% | 250 |
| 2016-12 | 70.9% | 251 |
| 2017-01 | 68.9% | 251 |
| 2017-02 | 69.3% | 251 |
| 2017-03 | 71.4% | 252 |
| 2017-04 | 71.6% | 250 |
| 2017-05 | 70.1% | 251 |
| 2017-06 | 69.7% | 251 |
| 2017-07 | 71.2% | 250 |
| 2017-08 | 70.4% | 250 |
| 2017-09 | 69.9% | 249 |
| 2017-10 | 71.6% | 250 |
| 2017-11 | 70.8% | 250 |
| 2017-12 | 72.3% | 249 |
| 2018-01 | 73.6% | 250 |
| 2018-02 | 73.2% | 250 |
| 2018-03 | 72.6% | 248 |
| 2018-04 | 73.2% | 250 |
| 2018-05 | 71.6% | 250 |
| 2018-06 | 72.7% | 249 |
| 2018-07 | 72.4% | 250 |
| 2018-08 | 73.2% | 250 |
| 2018-09 | 72.7% | 249 |
| 2018-10 | 72.8% | 250 |
| 2018-11 | 73.2% | 250 |
| 2018-12 | 73.4% | 248 |
| 2019-01 | 75.0% | 248 |
| 2019-02 | 74.2% | 248 |
| 2019-03 | 73.8% | 248 |
| 2019-04 | 72.2% | 248 |
| 2019-05 | 73.8% | 248 |
| 2019-06 | 72.1% | 247 |
| 2019-07 | 72.2% | 248 |
| 2019-08 | 73.3% | 247 |
| 2019-09 | 74.2% | 248 |
| 2019-10 | 74.6% | 248 |
| 2019-11 | 74.5% | 247 |
| 2019-12 | 73.9% | 249 |
| 2020-01 | 72.7% | 249 |
| 2020-02 | 72.5% | 247 |
| 2020-03 | 74.2% | 248 |
| 2020-04 | 76.2% | 248 |
| 2020-05 | 77.3% | 247 |
| 2020-06 | 79.4% | 247 |
| 2020-07 | 79.4% | 248 |
| 2020-08 | 79.4% | 248 |
| 2020-09 | 80.2% | 248 |
| 2020-10 | 81.0% | 247 |
| 2020-11 | 82.7% | 248 |
| 2020-12 | 83.5% | 249 |
| 2021-01 | 83.4% | 247 |
| 2021-02 | 84.7% | 248 |
| 2021-03 | 83.9% | 249 |
| 2021-04 | 83.5% | 249 |
| 2021-05 | 83.5% | 249 |
| 2021-06 | 82.4% | 250 |
| 2021-07 | 81.9% | 249 |
| 2021-08 | 82.0% | 250 |
| 2021-09 | 82.4% | 250 |
| 2021-10 | 82.3% | 249 |
| 2021-11 | 82.0% | 250 |
| 2021-12 | 82.1% | 251 |
| 2022-01 | 83.3% | 252 |
| 2022-02 | 82.9% | 252 |
| 2022-03 | 83.3% | 252 |
| 2022-04 | 83.7% | 251 |
| 2022-05 | 82.9% | 252 |
| 2022-06 | 82.9% | 251 |
| 2022-07 | 84.8% | 250 |
| 2022-08 | 84.5% | 251 |
| 2022-09 | 84.9% | 251 |
| 2022-10 | 84.5% | 251 |
| 2022-11 | 84.5% | 251 |
| 2022-12 | 84.8% | 250 |
| 2023-01 | 85.2% | 250 |
| 2023-02 | 83.6% | 250 |
| 2023-03 | 84.0% | 250 |
| 2023-04 | 83.5% | 249 |
| 2023-05 | 83.2% | 250 |
| 2023-06 | 82.8% | 250 |
| 2023-07 | 81.5% | 249 |
| 2023-08 | 82.3% | 249 |
| 2023-09 | 81.5% | 248 |
| 2023-10 | 81.9% | 249 |
| 2023-11 | 80.7% | 249 |
| 2023-12 | 80.2% | 248 |
| 2024-01 | 79.5% | 249 |
| 2024-02 | 80.3% | 249 |
| 2024-03 | 79.8% | 247 |
| 2024-04 | 79.5% | 249 |
| 2024-05 | 79.9% | 249 |
| 2024-06 | 80.6% | 248 |
| 2024-07 | 82.3% | 249 |
| 2024-08 | 82.3% | 248 |
| 2024-09 | 81.1% | 249 |
| 2024-10 | 80.3% | 249 |
| 2024-11 | 78.6% | 248 |
| 2024-12 | 78.3% | 249 |
| 2025-01 | 76.1% | 247 |
| 2025-02 | 76.9% | 247 |
| 2025-03 | 76.2% | 248 |
| 2025-04 | 78.1% | 247 |
| 2025-05 | 78.0% | 246 |
| 2025-06 | 78.5% | 247 |
| 2025-07 | 75.3% | 247 |
| 2025-08 | 74.8% | 246 |
| 2025-09 | 76.1% | 247 |
| 2025-10 | 75.3% | 247 |
| 2025-11 | 78.5% | 246 |
| 2025-12 | 77.7% | 247 |
| 2026-01 | 78.5% | 247 |
| 2026-02 | 78.9% | 247 |
| 2026-03 | 78.6% | 248 |
| 2026-04 | 77.8% | 248 |
| 2026-05 | 76.5% | 247 |
| 2026-06 | 75.8% | 248 |
filters applied 0 · p 1.000 · adjusted p 1.000
The 78% rate on 4013 matching days was not distinguishable from the 78% base rate after adjustment (adjusted p = 1.00).