Initial balance
All matching sessions
RTH extended below the first-hour low on
55.4%of 4,013 matching days · 95% CI 53.9%–56.9%
Base rate
55.4%
n 4,013
Lift
+0.0 pp
vs base rate
Matching days
4,013
sample size
Every outcome of this report
By weekday
Select a weekday to condition the whole report on it; select it again to clear.
Evidence
Sample split
In sample 2010–202255.3% n 3,132
Out of sample 2023–present55.6% n 881
By regime
Regime era · Pre-202054.7% n 2,382
Regime era · Covid 202057.8% n 249
Regime era · Post-202056.1% n 1,382
Trend / chop · Trend51.5% n 1,397
Trend / chop · Chop57.4% n 2,596
Rolling 12-month rate
Rolling 12-month values
| Month | Rate | Days |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-06 | — | 18 |
| 2010-07 | 64.1% | 39 |
| 2010-08 | 57.4% | 61 |
| 2010-09 | 53.7% | 82 |
| 2010-10 | 52.4% | 103 |
| 2010-11 | 52.8% | 123 |
| 2010-12 | 51.0% | 145 |
| 2011-01 | 51.5% | 165 |
| 2011-02 | 49.5% | 184 |
| 2011-03 | 48.3% | 207 |
| 2011-04 | 50.2% | 227 |
| 2011-05 | 51.6% | 248 |
| 2011-06 | 51.2% | 252 |
| 2011-07 | 49.4% | 251 |
| 2011-08 | 52.0% | 252 |
| 2011-09 | 54.8% | 252 |
| 2011-10 | 56.0% | 252 |
| 2011-11 | 57.5% | 252 |
| 2011-12 | 59.4% | 251 |
| 2012-01 | 59.0% | 251 |
| 2012-02 | 60.2% | 251 |
| 2012-03 | 60.8% | 250 |
| 2012-04 | 60.2% | 251 |
| 2012-05 | 59.8% | 251 |
| 2012-06 | 59.2% | 250 |
| 2012-07 | 60.0% | 250 |
| 2012-08 | 57.6% | 250 |
| 2012-09 | 55.8% | 249 |
| 2012-10 | 57.3% | 248 |
| 2012-11 | 56.5% | 248 |
| 2012-12 | 55.9% | 247 |
| 2013-01 | 56.3% | 247 |
| 2013-02 | 56.7% | 247 |
| 2013-03 | 57.1% | 245 |
| 2013-04 | 56.7% | 247 |
| 2013-05 | 55.1% | 247 |
| 2013-06 | 56.9% | 246 |
| 2013-07 | 58.3% | 247 |
| 2013-08 | 58.5% | 246 |
| 2013-09 | 57.1% | 247 |
| 2013-10 | 53.8% | 249 |
| 2013-11 | 52.0% | 248 |
| 2013-12 | 52.2% | 249 |
| 2014-01 | 53.0% | 249 |
| 2014-02 | 51.0% | 249 |
| 2014-03 | 52.4% | 250 |
| 2014-04 | 53.4% | 249 |
| 2014-05 | 52.8% | 248 |
| 2014-06 | 50.2% | 247 |
| 2014-07 | 48.6% | 247 |
| 2014-08 | 47.6% | 246 |
| 2014-09 | 50.4% | 244 |
| 2014-10 | 51.6% | 244 |
| 2014-11 | 52.7% | 243 |
| 2014-12 | 52.3% | 243 |
| 2015-01 | 52.1% | 242 |
| 2015-02 | 52.9% | 242 |
| 2015-03 | 52.3% | 243 |
| 2015-04 | 50.6% | 243 |
| 2015-05 | 51.7% | 242 |
| 2015-06 | 54.3% | 245 |
| 2015-07 | 54.5% | 246 |
| 2015-08 | 57.7% | 246 |
| 2015-09 | 58.6% | 249 |
| 2015-10 | 58.9% | 248 |
| 2015-11 | 59.0% | 249 |
| 2015-12 | 60.8% | 250 |
| 2016-01 | 61.4% | 249 |
| 2016-02 | 62.8% | 250 |
| 2016-03 | 61.4% | 249 |
| 2016-04 | 62.7% | 249 |
| 2016-05 | 62.8% | 250 |
| 2016-06 | 62.0% | 250 |
| 2016-07 | 61.8% | 249 |
| 2016-08 | 58.4% | 250 |
| 2016-09 | 56.8% | 250 |
| 2016-10 | 56.8% | 250 |
| 2016-11 | 56.4% | 250 |
| 2016-12 | 55.0% | 251 |
| 2017-01 | 53.4% | 251 |
| 2017-02 | 51.0% | 251 |
| 2017-03 | 52.8% | 252 |
| 2017-04 | 52.8% | 250 |
| 2017-05 | 51.8% | 251 |
| 2017-06 | 50.2% | 251 |
| 2017-07 | 49.6% | 250 |
| 2017-08 | 48.8% | 250 |
| 2017-09 | 48.6% | 249 |
| 2017-10 | 48.0% | 250 |
| 2017-11 | 48.4% | 250 |
| 2017-12 | 47.4% | 249 |
| 2018-01 | 46.4% | 250 |
| 2018-02 | 49.2% | 250 |
| 2018-03 | 50.8% | 248 |
| 2018-04 | 51.2% | 250 |
| 2018-05 | 53.2% | 250 |
| 2018-06 | 55.0% | 249 |
| 2018-07 | 55.2% | 250 |
| 2018-08 | 56.8% | 250 |
| 2018-09 | 55.4% | 249 |
| 2018-10 | 56.8% | 250 |
| 2018-11 | 57.6% | 250 |
| 2018-12 | 61.3% | 248 |
| 2019-01 | 62.1% | 248 |
| 2019-02 | 59.7% | 248 |
| 2019-03 | 57.7% | 248 |
| 2019-04 | 56.5% | 248 |
| 2019-05 | 56.0% | 248 |
| 2019-06 | 55.5% | 247 |
| 2019-07 | 56.9% | 248 |
| 2019-08 | 58.7% | 247 |
| 2019-09 | 59.7% | 248 |
| 2019-10 | 57.3% | 248 |
| 2019-11 | 56.7% | 247 |
| 2019-12 | 50.6% | 249 |
| 2020-01 | 51.0% | 249 |
| 2020-02 | 51.4% | 247 |
| 2020-03 | 52.4% | 248 |
| 2020-04 | 52.4% | 248 |
| 2020-05 | 52.2% | 247 |
| 2020-06 | 51.4% | 247 |
| 2020-07 | 51.2% | 248 |
| 2020-08 | 50.0% | 248 |
| 2020-09 | 51.6% | 248 |
| 2020-10 | 54.7% | 247 |
| 2020-11 | 54.8% | 248 |
| 2020-12 | 57.8% | 249 |
| 2021-01 | 58.7% | 247 |
| 2021-02 | 59.3% | 248 |
| 2021-03 | 59.0% | 249 |
| 2021-04 | 57.8% | 249 |
| 2021-05 | 57.8% | 249 |
| 2021-06 | 57.6% | 250 |
| 2021-07 | 56.2% | 249 |
| 2021-08 | 56.0% | 250 |
| 2021-09 | 55.2% | 250 |
| 2021-10 | 52.6% | 249 |
| 2021-11 | 52.0% | 250 |
| 2021-12 | 52.6% | 251 |
| 2022-01 | 53.6% | 252 |
| 2022-02 | 54.4% | 252 |
| 2022-03 | 55.2% | 252 |
| 2022-04 | 58.2% | 251 |
| 2022-05 | 57.9% | 252 |
| 2022-06 | 59.0% | 251 |
| 2022-07 | 58.8% | 250 |
| 2022-08 | 59.4% | 251 |
| 2022-09 | 59.8% | 251 |
| 2022-10 | 60.6% | 251 |
| 2022-11 | 62.2% | 251 |
| 2022-12 | 61.2% | 250 |
| 2023-01 | 59.2% | 250 |
| 2023-02 | 59.6% | 250 |
| 2023-03 | 59.6% | 250 |
| 2023-04 | 58.2% | 249 |
| 2023-05 | 59.2% | 250 |
| 2023-06 | 57.6% | 250 |
| 2023-07 | 58.6% | 249 |
| 2023-08 | 59.4% | 249 |
| 2023-09 | 58.5% | 248 |
| 2023-10 | 59.0% | 249 |
| 2023-11 | 57.4% | 249 |
| 2023-12 | 57.7% | 248 |
| 2024-01 | 59.4% | 249 |
| 2024-02 | 58.6% | 249 |
| 2024-03 | 57.5% | 247 |
| 2024-04 | 57.0% | 249 |
| 2024-05 | 56.2% | 249 |
| 2024-06 | 56.5% | 248 |
| 2024-07 | 58.2% | 249 |
| 2024-08 | 56.5% | 248 |
| 2024-09 | 58.2% | 249 |
| 2024-10 | 58.2% | 249 |
| 2024-11 | 57.7% | 248 |
| 2024-12 | 56.6% | 249 |
| 2025-01 | 55.5% | 247 |
| 2025-02 | 54.3% | 247 |
| 2025-03 | 54.4% | 248 |
| 2025-04 | 54.7% | 247 |
| 2025-05 | 54.9% | 246 |
| 2025-06 | 55.9% | 247 |
| 2025-07 | 54.3% | 247 |
| 2025-08 | 54.5% | 246 |
| 2025-09 | 52.2% | 247 |
| 2025-10 | 52.6% | 247 |
| 2025-11 | 54.9% | 246 |
| 2025-12 | 56.3% | 247 |
| 2026-01 | 55.5% | 247 |
| 2026-02 | 55.9% | 247 |
| 2026-03 | 56.9% | 248 |
| 2026-04 | 55.2% | 248 |
| 2026-05 | 53.8% | 247 |
| 2026-06 | 52.4% | 248 |
filters applied 0 · p 1.000 · adjusted p 1.000
The 55% rate on 4013 matching days was not distinguishable from the 55% base rate after adjustment (adjusted p = 1.00).