Initial balance
Weekday: Tuesday
RTH extended below the first-hour low on
55.4%of 828 matching days · 95% CI 52.0%–58.8%
Base rate
55.4%
n 4,013
Lift
+0.0 pp
vs base rate
Matching days
828
sample size
Every outcome of this report
By weekday
Select a weekday to condition the whole report on it; select it again to clear.
Evidence
Sample split
In sample 2010–202255.9% n 644
Out of sample 2023–present53.8% n 184
By regime
Regime era · Pre-202054.2% n 489
Regime era · Covid 202066.7% n 51
Regime era · Post-202055.6% n 288
Trend / chop · Trend48.6% n 288
Trend / chop · Chop59.0% n 536
Rolling 12-month rate
Rolling 12-month values
| Month | Rate | Days |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-06 | — | 4 |
| 2010-07 | — | 8 |
| 2010-08 | — | 13 |
| 2010-09 | — | 17 |
| 2010-10 | — | 21 |
| 2010-11 | — | 26 |
| 2010-12 | 46.7% | 30 |
| 2011-01 | 50.0% | 34 |
| 2011-02 | 47.4% | 38 |
| 2011-03 | 46.5% | 43 |
| 2011-04 | 48.9% | 47 |
| 2011-05 | 51.9% | 52 |
| 2011-06 | 48.1% | 52 |
| 2011-07 | 46.2% | 52 |
| 2011-08 | 51.9% | 52 |
| 2011-09 | 53.8% | 52 |
| 2011-10 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2011-11 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2011-12 | 55.8% | 52 |
| 2012-01 | 56.6% | 53 |
| 2012-02 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2012-03 | 55.8% | 52 |
| 2012-04 | 55.8% | 52 |
| 2012-05 | 55.8% | 52 |
| 2012-06 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2012-07 | 61.5% | 52 |
| 2012-08 | 60.8% | 51 |
| 2012-09 | 60.8% | 51 |
| 2012-10 | 62.0% | 50 |
| 2012-11 | 58.0% | 50 |
| 2012-12 | 57.1% | 49 |
| 2013-01 | 54.2% | 48 |
| 2013-02 | 54.2% | 48 |
| 2013-03 | 60.4% | 48 |
| 2013-04 | 59.2% | 49 |
| 2013-05 | 56.3% | 48 |
| 2013-06 | 54.2% | 48 |
| 2013-07 | 55.1% | 49 |
| 2013-08 | 55.1% | 49 |
| 2013-09 | 53.1% | 49 |
| 2013-10 | 52.0% | 50 |
| 2013-11 | 52.0% | 50 |
| 2013-12 | 52.9% | 51 |
| 2014-01 | 52.9% | 51 |
| 2014-02 | 49.0% | 51 |
| 2014-03 | 47.1% | 51 |
| 2014-04 | 45.1% | 51 |
| 2014-05 | 47.1% | 51 |
| 2014-06 | 47.1% | 51 |
| 2014-07 | 45.1% | 51 |
| 2014-08 | 45.1% | 51 |
| 2014-09 | 45.1% | 51 |
| 2014-10 | 44.0% | 50 |
| 2014-11 | 44.0% | 50 |
| 2014-12 | 47.1% | 51 |
| 2015-01 | 51.0% | 51 |
| 2015-02 | 54.9% | 51 |
| 2015-03 | 59.6% | 52 |
| 2015-04 | 60.8% | 51 |
| 2015-05 | 60.8% | 51 |
| 2015-06 | 63.5% | 52 |
| 2015-07 | 62.7% | 51 |
| 2015-08 | 66.7% | 51 |
| 2015-09 | 69.2% | 52 |
| 2015-10 | 71.2% | 52 |
| 2015-11 | 73.1% | 52 |
| 2015-12 | 69.2% | 52 |
| 2016-01 | 67.3% | 52 |
| 2016-02 | 69.2% | 52 |
| 2016-03 | 61.5% | 52 |
| 2016-04 | 63.5% | 52 |
| 2016-05 | 60.4% | 53 |
| 2016-06 | 61.5% | 52 |
| 2016-07 | 63.5% | 52 |
| 2016-08 | 59.6% | 52 |
| 2016-09 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2016-10 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2016-11 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2016-12 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2017-01 | 54.7% | 53 |
| 2017-02 | 52.8% | 53 |
| 2017-03 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2017-04 | 55.8% | 52 |
| 2017-05 | 55.8% | 52 |
| 2017-06 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2017-07 | 54.9% | 51 |
| 2017-08 | 51.0% | 51 |
| 2017-09 | 52.9% | 51 |
| 2017-10 | 50.0% | 52 |
| 2017-11 | 51.0% | 51 |
| 2017-12 | 49.0% | 51 |
| 2018-01 | 47.1% | 51 |
| 2018-02 | 45.1% | 51 |
| 2018-03 | 47.1% | 51 |
| 2018-04 | 47.1% | 51 |
| 2018-05 | 51.0% | 51 |
| 2018-06 | 49.0% | 51 |
| 2018-07 | 50.0% | 52 |
| 2018-08 | 52.9% | 51 |
| 2018-09 | 49.0% | 51 |
| 2018-10 | 47.1% | 51 |
| 2018-11 | 47.1% | 51 |
| 2018-12 | 52.0% | 50 |
| 2019-01 | 57.1% | 49 |
| 2019-02 | 55.1% | 49 |
| 2019-03 | 51.0% | 49 |
| 2019-04 | 52.0% | 50 |
| 2019-05 | 49.0% | 49 |
| 2019-06 | 46.9% | 49 |
| 2019-07 | 48.0% | 50 |
| 2019-08 | 50.0% | 50 |
| 2019-09 | 52.0% | 50 |
| 2019-10 | 58.0% | 50 |
| 2019-11 | 58.0% | 50 |
| 2019-12 | 51.0% | 51 |
| 2020-01 | 47.1% | 51 |
| 2020-02 | 51.0% | 51 |
| 2020-03 | 53.8% | 52 |
| 2020-04 | 54.9% | 51 |
| 2020-05 | 58.8% | 51 |
| 2020-06 | 58.8% | 51 |
| 2020-07 | 60.0% | 50 |
| 2020-08 | 60.0% | 50 |
| 2020-09 | 62.0% | 50 |
| 2020-10 | 62.0% | 50 |
| 2020-11 | 62.0% | 50 |
| 2020-12 | 66.7% | 51 |
| 2021-01 | 68.6% | 51 |
| 2021-02 | 66.7% | 51 |
| 2021-03 | 64.7% | 51 |
| 2021-04 | 62.7% | 51 |
| 2021-05 | 60.8% | 51 |
| 2021-06 | 61.5% | 52 |
| 2021-07 | 61.5% | 52 |
| 2021-08 | 60.4% | 53 |
| 2021-09 | 59.6% | 52 |
| 2021-10 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2021-11 | 58.5% | 53 |
| 2021-12 | 59.6% | 52 |
| 2022-01 | 61.5% | 52 |
| 2022-02 | 63.5% | 52 |
| 2022-03 | 61.5% | 52 |
| 2022-04 | 63.5% | 52 |
| 2022-05 | 60.4% | 53 |
| 2022-06 | 59.6% | 52 |
| 2022-07 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2022-08 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2022-09 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2022-10 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2022-11 | 59.6% | 52 |
| 2022-12 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2023-01 | 54.7% | 53 |
| 2023-02 | 54.7% | 53 |
| 2023-03 | 59.6% | 52 |
| 2023-04 | 61.5% | 52 |
| 2023-05 | 65.4% | 52 |
| 2023-06 | 63.5% | 52 |
| 2023-07 | 60.8% | 51 |
| 2023-08 | 60.8% | 51 |
| 2023-09 | 60.8% | 51 |
| 2023-10 | 59.6% | 52 |
| 2023-11 | 54.9% | 51 |
| 2023-12 | 51.0% | 51 |
| 2024-01 | 51.0% | 51 |
| 2024-02 | 54.9% | 51 |
| 2024-03 | 51.0% | 51 |
| 2024-04 | 48.1% | 52 |
| 2024-05 | 45.1% | 51 |
| 2024-06 | 45.1% | 51 |
| 2024-07 | 51.9% | 52 |
| 2024-08 | 48.1% | 52 |
| 2024-09 | 50.0% | 52 |
| 2024-10 | 50.0% | 52 |
| 2024-11 | 51.9% | 52 |
| 2024-12 | 55.8% | 52 |
| 2025-01 | 56.9% | 51 |
| 2025-02 | 52.9% | 51 |
| 2025-03 | 52.9% | 51 |
| 2025-04 | 51.0% | 51 |
| 2025-05 | 49.0% | 51 |
| 2025-06 | 51.0% | 51 |
| 2025-07 | 51.0% | 51 |
| 2025-08 | 52.9% | 51 |
| 2025-09 | 50.0% | 52 |
| 2025-10 | 52.9% | 51 |
| 2025-11 | 54.9% | 51 |
| 2025-12 | 55.8% | 52 |
| 2026-01 | 55.8% | 52 |
| 2026-02 | 57.7% | 52 |
| 2026-03 | 56.6% | 53 |
| 2026-04 | 59.6% | 52 |
| 2026-05 | 59.6% | 52 |
| 2026-06 | 60.4% | 53 |
filters applied 1 · p 0.983 · adjusted p 0.983
The 55% rate on 828 matching days was not distinguishable from the 55% base rate after adjustment (adjusted p = 0.98 across 5 filter combinations).